Climate change on Earth by 2100

“	The increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are having an effect. Our ability to predict that effect is very limited.	”
–United States Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson in 2017

The very basic idea that the climate on Earth does change from time to time, has been agreed upon by the scientific society since early 19th century. However, the relation between human actions and the rapid change in global climate was not completely agreed upon until much later. Many things affected towards the will of denial, even if prominent deductions and theories were manufactured in the 1950s and 1960s which supported that the Mankind's actions affected changes in climate. In late 1950s it was somewhat clear, that increasing CO2 emissions could eventually cause radical changes in climate. Companies that operated in the industries that caused large CO2 emissions, like oil industry, soved uncertainty, falsified studies and lobbied governments to undermine the results of "fear-mongering" scientists.

By the early 21st century there was no reason to believe otherwise than that the human actions heavily influenced the global warming that was nothing else than apparent by then, still many people found the proofs unsound. Sceptics were not only ordinary people, but also politicians, scientists, researchers, lobbyists, people from all walks of life. The campaign of climate denialism proved to be too strong, too compelling, too pro-growth, that for many it was hard to accept it otherwise. Climate change was - after all - not real, not urgent, not our fault and certainly not certain.

Even the most pessimistic scenarios produced in early 21st century failed to forecast the devastation brought by the rapid global warming during the 21st century. Sea-surface temperature, sea level, temperature over oceans and temperature over land all increased the global warming and were increased by global warming hence creating a vicious circle prone to runaway heating.

Europe

Projections of climate change by EEA, 2016

Large areas in Mediterranean have become inhospitable to human life. Ambient temperature, loss of ground water and desertification have forced heavy industry, agriculture and tourism northwards to Central- and Northern-Europe. European climate refugees number in tens of millions causing economic crises all around the Europe as unemployment and crime increase drastically. First climate-controlled habitats in France and Spain become hotspots of rich and wealthy.

Alps

European water towers, the Alps, took the first punch, their ecological spectrum completely turned around by 2100. Some 70% of Alpine glaciers were melted by 2050s and were completely gone by 2090s. Increased temperatures first caused the Alpine meadows to recede and replaced by larger trees and bushes, which were soon overrun by the broadleaved European forests that creeped up the mountainsides. Alpine evergreens were gone by 2110s with majority of Alpine fauna found extinct because of their inability to cope with the climate and environmental changes. Rising temperatures and loss of glaciers caused the Alpine regions to lose their ability to store water during the colder months and release it during the warmer months when precipitation is lower, this caused - despite the increased forestation in the area - drought during the summer months and floods during winter months. Torrential rains, landslides and water contamination forced the Alpine societies to invest into water treatment and strict control of water usage of different economical sectors. Danube began to experience devastating floods in late winter from mid-21st century because of its extensive canalisation before the Iron Gates.

Po Basin faced problems with increased water flow, which was a result of deglacialised Alps. Po river conservation failed to provide enough wetlands and floodplains which could protect the human inhabitants along the river of its flooding. Po Basin experienced mean temperature rise of 5 degrees celsius by the end of 21st century which affected its vegetation drastically, causing an influx of new species in the area. Po river delta managed to keep its sedimentary supply constant enough to combat against the rising sea level, however, by the 2100 sea level rise had all but nulled the increased sedimentary supply caused by increased waterflow from the melting Alpine glaciers and the sea had consumed large areas in the Po Basin. Cities of Treviso, Padova, Ferrara, Ravenna and Rimini experienced an influx of people who migrated from the doomed river basin further inland. Po Basin's importance as a large producer of agricultural goods faced problems with the increased temperatures, salt contamination of soil and ground water and increased amount of floods.

Rhone river began to experience large floods downstream near Mediterranean but also experiences devastating droughts in upstream. As the Rhone river is largely supplied by Rhone glacier in Valais canton, its rapid melting first caused increased fllooding in mid-21st century, but after its apparent destruction, the river began to experience droughts and occasional floods that far exceeded those experienced at times when the glacier existed.

Central-Europe

From Bretagne to Carpathian slopes. This large area from western to eastern Europe was characterised by a rise of 3 to 3.5 degrees celsius in mean temperatures by 2100. The area faced far less harsh change than the Mediterranean because of the cooling influence of the Atlantic and a relatively unaffected area when North-Atlantic Oscillation is considered. Central-France experienced slight decrease in precipitation yet Rhineland and eastern Poland saw a slight increase. Heatwaves became a yearly phenomenon and by 2100 had caimed millions of lives in Europe only which was - with its aging population - extremely vulnerable for them.

Aquitaine in western France experienced about 3 degrees celsius rise of mean temperature and faced annual precipitation loss of 30 percent. This caused the area to dry out, forcing the livestock industry mostly out by 2050 after the Pyrenees glaciers were completely melted. Occitanie and Aquitaine were struck by a lack of soil water due to the drying of Garonne and Dordogne rivers. Forestry was largely destroyed as an industry as pines and beeches retreated northwards and many traditional wine making areas faced the bitterness of climate change. Current generated by Garonne and Dordogne rivers that discharge into Gironde estuary was rather weak and tidal changes caused heavy currents in the estuary. With the rise of the sea level, flooding of the estuary's banks was unavoidable and as the rivers' discharge had lessened the tidal waves pushed brackish water from the estuary upstream causing further salinization of the area. Bordeaux city and its surroundings saw an increasing amount of climate refugees from the Pyrenees, Spain and from Africa, which forced the city to invest in apartments and public services. Reduction of soil water volumes caused health issues in the area until parts of the wineries were shut down in 2060 by law to ensure the water supplies were enough for the population. Prime Minister of France Leopold Cisse became the most hated politician of his time as massive strikes were orchestrated around France, even if the grape production had diminished into miserable amounts because of lack of irrigation, frost, hails and increased storm surges from the Bay of Biscay before the official declaration. Attempts to preserve the unique marshlands of Poitevin Marsh were not determined enough and it was mostly consumed by salt water its biome largely destroyed.

Loire river basin faced heavy droughts since the early 21st century, largely due the irrigation of farmlands, wineries and use of water for livestock.

Iberian Peninsula

Iberian Peninsula, from Gibraltar to Andorra, experienced no less than 5 degrees celsius increase to mean temperatures. Especially the Central-Spain was heavily affected by rise of temperature and decrease of precipitation. Population in Spain fell to 29 million and 6 million in Portugal by 2099. Increased temperatures, ageing population, lack of water brought Spain's tourism industry down hard which, combined with the beforementioned, created large migration flows northwards in search of jobs. Southern France had also seen hard times by the end of the century and tensions between the Spanish immigrants and locals lightened up into riots. Catalonia, France, Benelux and Germany became bloated by the Spanish, Portuguese, Italians, Moroccoans and other African nationalities as the United European Commons faced even larger immigration waves as the century drew close.

Over exploitation of the water resources saw large areas of Spain to desertificate. Where only a small portion of Spain had been desert of aridic in the beginning on the century, by the end almost 85% of Spain was either completely desert or extremely arid steppe. Ebro river sees lots of its flow lessened because of the low precipitation levels and its delta area in southern Catalonia is drawn inland as the rising sea levels push the mouth in its wake. Formerly fertile land becomes heavily salinisatised and lost.

Mean temperature rises are not enough as lethal heat waves also become more and more common year by year. Forest fires of the uninhabited areas break loose every year destroying habitats of many animals and thus severing the ecosystem completely.

Mediterranean

Mediterranean coast from Gibraltar to Adriatic Sea, and the Apennines Peninsula, experienced temperature rise of 4 degrees celsius by the end of the century. Most of the Greece and western Turkey experienced temperature rises over 6 degrees celsius, which rendered large areas of the mountainous lands uninhabitable.

Agricultural production in Apulia, Calabria, Balearics, Corsica and Greece faced declination of over 50% due to the lack of irrigation water and extreme heat. Southern Italy, Corsica, Sardinia and many of the Aegean Islands experienced complete loss of ground water effectively causing instantaneos desertification of the areas, destruction of local economy and mass-migrations from the areas to mainland Europe. In mid-21st century many of these areas experienced great olive harvests in quantities never seen before and many even thought the climate change was in their favor. However, by the end of the century it was clear that not even the so-resilient European olive survives in the extreme heat and complete shortage of water. Middle-Eastern olive producers, such as Israel, Egypt and Syria experienced the same demise of olive trees. Southern France (except for the Rhone river valley) and the Balkans experienced similar reductions in agricultural productions because of the increased temperatures (from 3 to 4 degrees celsius) and the decreased water availability for irrigation.

Overall, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and Spain experienced the most severe impacts of the global warming in the Europe. Tourism plunged in areas that had relied on it for centuries now causing mass-unemployment and increased crime. Extreme temperatures and droughts rendered these countries mostly unable to produce agricultural goods. Ground water depleted quickly in large areas forcing people to migrate northwards and close-by regions such as Po Basin in Italy, Catalonia in Spain and Romania were forced to accept large quantities of European climate refugees.

Medicanes (from Mediterranean hurricanes) increase in strenght and frequency due rise of sea-temperature in Mediterranean. Two large hotspots of forming are in Ionian Sea and west of Sardinia. Their trajectories go either over Apennines or to Southern France, both which are prone to cause landslides, mudslides, extreme erosion, crop destruction and massive damage on property.

Polar Regions

Arctica and Greenland

By the 2050s whole september is free of Arctic sea ice and the feedback loop affecting the Arctic areas see that in 2070 the Northern Sea Route is freed of sea ice for a whole year. In 2100, last batches of Arctic sea ice are located in the northern parts of Baffin Bay, hugging the Ellesmere and Greenland islands. Even those ice are melted away in the following decades leaving the whole Arctic sea free of ice by 2120.

Retreating sea ice lowers the price of oil barrel which has been increasing since 2040 as offshore platforms are moved ever northwards to drill the northern sea bed. Large oil spills in the Barents and Arctic seas become more common, especially before the sea ice is completely withdrawn.

In Greenland, attempts to continue everything as things were are lost and with the assistance of Danish government, trees, bushes and flowers are planted in Greenland. By 2100, Greenland becomes actually green with mean temperatures risen over 6 degrees celsius.

See also

• Timeline
• Timeline of Earth

Further reading

• European Environment Agency
• European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
• MDPI foundation
• Phys.org